Do you remember back in 2016 and 2018 when the Trafalgar Group accurately predicted the outcomes of political races when nearly everyone else got them wrong? The Republican pollster just might repeat this phenomenon once again in 2020. The Trafalgar Group is predicting President Trump will carry the swing states of Wisconsin and Michigan in spite of the fact that most other polls show Joe Biden is leading in those states.
Rewind Back to 2016
Back in 2016, every single poll of the presidential race in the uber-important state of Michigan showed Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton edging out Donald Trump – except for one that is. The Trafalgar Group showed Trump was actually ahead by two percentage points while every other poll showed Clinton was ahead by at least five percentage points.
To the surprise of pollsters across the land Day (but for Trafalgar), Trump emerged victorious in Michigan on Election, winning by the slim edge of 0.3 points. The same exact scenario played out in Pennsylvania, with Trump winning by slightly more (0.7 percentage points) on the big day.
Trafalgar Points to Trump’s Edge in Battleground States in 2020
Trafalgar recently released polls that show Trump has a lead of at least half of a percentage point over Biden in Minnesota. Furthermore, Trafalgar also shows Trump is leading Biden by a percentage point in Michigan and Wisconsin. History shows Trafalgar’s predictions come true. In other words, President Trump is closer to Biden in the polls than most analysts predict. Trafalgar’s poll numbers should be taken seriously as this is Trafalgar’s line of business. If Trafalgar is wrong, business will dissipate. In other words, Trafalgar has a vested interest in making accurate predictions.
Why Trump is Likely to Fare Better Than Expected
Though plenty of voters are silent about their support for Trump while in the workplace and in other social settings, they make their voice heard when in the voting booth. It is somewhat of a social suicide to profess one’s support for Trump in the office or in another social space yet actions speak louder than words. Social judgment dissipates once one enters the voting booth.
The bottom line is Trump has the support of a silent majority that continues to grow with each passing day. If Trafalgar is correct, Trump should carry more swing states than expected and win the Presidency over Joe Biden this November.